Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Episode 123 | March 5, 2019

Podcast Link

https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/16497627/zeihan-the-future-of-geopolitics

Podcast Introduction

Invest Like the Best was chosen as one of the top five podcasts rated by the Wall Street Journal. Its host Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. The host speaks with investors, founders, and CEOs willing to share some of what they've learned in their lives. The podcast is now expanding its horizons to cover personalities from different fields like Politics, Journalism, and Media.

Guest Introduction

Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist who combines expertise in demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to assess an uncertain future. Before founding his strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world's premier private intelligence companies.

Geopolitics – Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

Winning the Geographical Lottery would be having your borders separated by mountains or even better, oceans. Navigable river system and Fertile Grasslands at the heart of the territory supports trade, agriculture, and cultural homogeneity. Most successful countries in World History have had few of these characteristics. The US has been the biggest benefactor of this natural selection.

Geopolitical History can be broken down into four major phases.

• The Imperialist Age was led by few powers blessed with geographical advantages, trading culture, and burgeoning population. This age led to most technological innovations but culminated in ravaging wars.
• Phase Two saw America reach the frontiers of global supremacy. Globalization reigned, and America promised naval protection to whoever supported it in its Cold War with USSR.
• Phase Three has been the Auto mode Phase with America taking a seat back after the USSR collapsed. Tremendous Capital Generation and Rise of Asian Giants has been achieved, but now the phrase has been going through a slow but sure death.
• Phase Four will be that of the disorder. America and other powers are still figuring out their role and importance. The only certainty is that the formula for the Second and Third Phase will not work.

How the Modern Order came to be?

Pre-Bretton Woods: In this era, labor, capital, and supply chains were all primarily localized. If the area had navigable rivers, the distribution would happen along with it. Big, Industrial Cities propped up.